Los Blancos to bring the title back to Madrid?
Barcelona will begin the Spanish 2026/27 season with the trophy in their possession, but Real Madrid have spent the summer making sure that defending it will be anything but straightforward.
An eight-point gap separated the Spanish giants last season. Since then, Jose Mourinho has returned to Real Madrid and a host of new players have arrived at the Bernabeu. Barcelona have also refreshed their attacking options following the departure of Robert Lewandowski, while Lamine Yamal enters the campaign with expectations higher than ever.
The title race naturally dominates the conversation, but there is intrigue elsewhere. Atlético Madrid want to reclaim their usual position as Spain’s third force, Real Betis are threatening to break into the CL places, and the three promoted clubs face a difficult task simply staying in the division.
The title race: Advantage Real Madrid?
Barcelona’s eight-point winning margin suggests that Hansi Flick’s team should start as the side to beat.
The picture heading into the new campaign is not quite that simple. Real Madrid have undergone a substantial overhaul, starting with the return of Mourinho. His first spell at the club produced a league title in 2011/12, and his task this time is equally clear: knock Barcelona off the top.
The club have given him plenty of assistance in the transfer market. Marc Cucurella, Ibrahima Konate and Denzel Dumfries provide significant defensive reinforcements, while Bernardo Silva brings creativity and experience. Carlos Espi and Yan Diomande add further options to a squad already loaded with attacking talent.
That attack is headed by Kylian Mbappe. The Frenchman has won the Pichichi Trophy in both of his league seasons in Spain, scoring 31 goals in his debut campaign and 25 last term. Alongside Vinicius Junior, who has committed his future to the club with a new contract, Madrid possess an attack capable of deciding matches even when performances are below their best.
Jude Bellingham could also be crucial. His club form was inconsistent last season, but an excellent tournament this summer with England gives Madrid reason to expect a much more influential Bellingham in 2026/27. There are few excuses for Mourinho. This is a squad built to win the league.
Barcelona enter the post-Lewandowski era
Barcelona’s challenge is slightly different. Lewandowski’s departure removes one of the most reliable goalscorers of his generation, meaning Flick must reshape an attack that was good enough to deliver the championship last season.
Anthony Gordon and Karim Adeyemi have been recruited, giving Barcelona additional speed and versatility in the final third. Rodri could yet become the headline arrival if the Catalan club can complete a deal with Manchester City.
However, Barcelona’s season may ultimately be defined by what happens next in the extraordinary development of Yamal.
Sixteen league goals last season represented another major step forward. He is no longer simply a hugely talented youngster surrounded by established stars; he has become one of the players Barcelona expect to decide their biggest matches.
Raphinha and Ferran Torres provide further goal threats, but replacing Lewandowski’s output collectively will be essential.
Barcelona remain entirely capable of retaining their title. The concern is that while they have undergone changes, their biggest rival appears to have directly strengthened several areas of weakness. That is enough to make Real Madrid our narrow favourite.
Atlético look to reclaim third place
Villarreal upset the expected order behind the leading pair last season by finishing third. Atlético Madrid ended three points further back in fourth, a position that will not have satisfied Simeone. The Argentine has spent much of his long spell in charge establishing Atlético as the clear alternative to Madrid and Barcelona, and restoring that status will be one of the objectives this season.
Julian Alvarez remains particularly important. He has the quality to challenge the division’s leading scorers and will again carry much of Atlético’s attacking responsibility.
Villarreal cannot be dismissed after last season’s performance, but maintaining third place may prove more difficult than reaching it.
Then there is Real Betis. Pellegrini’s side finished fifth last season and enter 2026/27 as one of the most interesting teams outside the traditional leading trio. An impressive pre-season victory over PL champions Arsenal will only increase expectations.
The 12-point gap between Betis and third-placed Villarreal last season was significant, but the race could be much tighter this time.
Athletic Bilbao should also compete for European football, while Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad are capable of disrupting the expected order.
Top scorer: Can anyone catch Mbappe?
Predicting the winner of the Pichichi Trophy requires considerably less debate than predicting the league champion.
Mbappe is the player everyone else has to beat. His first two league campaigns have produced 56 goals and two top-scorer awards. A third successive triumph would underline his status as the dominant goalscorer in Spanish football.
There are challengers. Yamal reached 16 goals last season and another substantial improvement would put him firmly in contention. Vinicius will get opportunities in a powerful Real Madrid attack, while Barcelona’s Raphinha and Ferran Torres should also contribute regularly.
Alvarez is perhaps the strongest candidate outside the big two. Atlético will depend heavily on his goals, and he has the ability to put together a 20-goal league campaign.
Osasuna’s Ante Budimir remains a reliable outsider, while Mikel Oyarzabal deserves attention after an excellent summer for Spain.
The sensible prediction, however, remains Mbappe. Two seasons have provided more than enough evidence of what he can do in this league.
A wide-open relegation battle
If last season taught us anything about the bottom half of league, it is that apparent safety can disappear very quickly.
Girona finished 19th, yet only five points separated them from Real Sociedad all the way up in 10th. Mallorca were relegated on 42 points despite Osasuna and Levante finishing with exactly the same total.
A similarly congested table would put enormous pressure on the newcomers. Racing Santander return to the top division after winning the second tier. Deportivo La Coruna followed them up after taking second place, while Malaga earned promotion through the playoffs.
All three possess players capable of making an impact. Chupe scored 24 times for Malaga last season, while Racing’s Andres Martin managed 23. Goals of that volume gave both clubs a route into the top flight, but expecting the same numbers against significantly stronger defences would be optimistic.
The promoted teams will at least see potential targets around them. Osasuna and Levante survived by narrow margins last season. Alaves and Elche could also struggle, while Espanyol, Rayo Vallecano and even Sevilla could be dragged towards trouble if they make poor starts. Survival may once again require fighting for every point until the final weeks.
2026/27 prediction
The championship should come down to Barcelona and Real Madrid, but this season begins with a different balance from the one that ended in May.
Barcelona are defending champions and have one of world football’s outstanding talents in Yamal. They should remain extremely difficult to finish above.
Madrid, however, have attacked their weaknesses aggressively. Mourinho now has Cucurella, Konate, Dumfries and Bernardo Silva at his disposal alongside Bellingham, Vinicius and Mbappe. If those additions settle quickly, Madrid should be stronger across a full season than they were in 2025/26.
We expect that improvement to be enough to overturn the eight-point deficit and return the title to the Bernabeu.
Atlético are our choice for third, while Betis can take advantage of what should be a close battle for fourth place.
At the bottom, the promoted trio all have reasons for optimism, but the increase in quality from the second tier makes Racing, Deportivo and Malaga the three teams we expect to find life most difficult.
Champions: Real Madrid
Second: Barcelona
Third: Atlético Madrid
Fourth: Real Betis
Top goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe
Relegated: Racing Santander, Deportivo La Coruna, Malaga
Betting tip
Real Madrid to win the league at 2.10.
Barcelona’s eight-point advantage last season cannot be ignored, but neither can Real Madrid’s response. Mourinho has returned to a significantly reinforced squad, with major additions in defence and midfield complementing an attack already containing Mbappe and Vinicius.
We expect a close title race, but Madrid have the greater scope for improvement and are our selection to finish on top.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Read part 1 of our preview of the Italian 26/27 season here, with part 2 also out.
Read Part 1 of our PL 26/27 preview here, with part 2, part 3 and part 4 also out.
Please note that the odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last updated: 21.08.26
