Playoff Curse Looms for Italians
Italy host Northern Ireland in Bergamo on Thursday evening, with both sides one step away from the WC playoff final. For the Azzurri, the stakes are unusually high. Another failure at this stage would mean missing a third consecutive WC — something no former champion has experienced before.
Match Analysis
Italy’s recent WC qualification history has turned into a pattern they cannot ignore. Despite winning the European tournament back in 2021, they have repeatedly failed to convert strong campaigns into automatic qualification, and once again find themselves navigating the playoff route.
This time, the damage was done early. A heavy defeat to their main group rivals set the tone, and although Gennaro Gattuso oversaw a strong response with a run of victories, Italy fell short when it mattered most. Another defeat to the eventual group winners ultimately sealed their fate.
That context explains the decision to move this fixture to Bergamo. A more compact, intense setting is expected to work in Italy’s favour — but it also underlines the pressure surrounding the team.
On the pitch, the identity is clear. Italy dominate possession, control territory and look to dictate tempo through midfield. Nicolò Barella drives progression, while Sandro Tonali — if fit — provides structure and balance at the base. The system is built to control games rather than chase them.
The issue has been efficiency. Despite creating consistently, Italy have missed a high volume of clear chances during qualifying. That lack of clinical edge has repeatedly kept opponents in games longer than it should.
Mateo Retegui remains the focal point. His movement in the box and ability to arrive at the right moment make him the most reliable outlet, while Moise Kean offers a more direct threat, attacking space and stretching defensive lines. Federico Dimarco’s advanced role on the left also adds width and delivery into the final third.
Northern Ireland arrive with a completely different approach. Michael O’Neill’s side are built on discipline, structure and defensive resilience. They are comfortable without the ball and will look to keep the game compact for as long as possible.
A 5-4-1 system is expected, with limited space between lines and a focus on blocking central areas. Shea Charles plays a key role in reading the game and breaking up play, while the back line is tasked with handling sustained pressure.
This setup has allowed Northern Ireland to remain competitive, but it comes with clear limitations. Their attacking output has been modest, and chances are likely to be limited again here. Dion Charles will lead the line, often in isolation, relying on transitions and moments rather than sustained attacking play.
There is also the broader context to consider. Northern Ireland’s record away to top-level opposition remains poor, and their struggles against higher-ranked teams suggest this step up in quality will be difficult to manage over 90 minutes.
Italy’s recent head-to-head record reinforces that gap. They have dominated this fixture in recent years, both in terms of results and defensive control, and have not conceded in multiple consecutive meetings.
Team News
Italy are dealing with several defensive concerns. Giovanni Di Lorenzo is unavailable, while Alessandro Bastoni and Gianluca Mancini are both carrying knocks. Riccardo Calafiori is expected to feature after recovering from a minor issue. In attack, Gianluca Scamacca is a doubt, and Federico Chiesa has withdrawn from the squad. That leaves Retegui, Kean and Francesco Pio Esposito competing for places in the forward line.
Midfield remains largely intact, although Sandro Tonali’s fitness will need to be assessed before kickoff.
Northern Ireland also have key absentees to manage. Dan Ballard is ruled out with a hamstring injury, while captain Conor Bradley and Jamal Lewis are both unavailable in wide defensive areas.
There is some positive news in midfield, with George Saville returning from suspension and Shea Charles and Ali McCann available again. In defence, Paddy McNair is expected to lead a back line likely to include a combination of Ciaron Brown, Eoin Toal or Ruairi McConville.
Goalkeeper Pierce Charles is set to start, with a heavy workload expected given Italy’s attacking pressure.
Odds and Tips
Italy’s recent playoff history introduces a degree of tension, but the overall balance of quality in this matchup is clear.
Northern Ireland’s structure can make them difficult to break down, particularly early in games, but their limited attacking threat means they are unlikely to shift the momentum once Italy take control.
If the hosts can find an early breakthrough, the game should settle into a pattern that favours them.
Tip: Italy to win at 1.29.
Please note that the odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last updated: 26.03.26
