The Special One to defeat Former Club?
Real Madrid carry a narrow 1–0 lead into this evening’s second leg fixture against Benfica at the Santiago Bernabéu. Vinicius Junior settled the first meeting in Lisbon, but the tie remains very much alive. With a place in the CL last 16 at stake — and a possible clash with either Sporting or Manchester City next — there is little margin for error on either side.
Match Analysis
The first leg finished 1–0 thanks to Vinicius’ second-half strike, but the events surrounding the match generated almost as much attention as the result itself. Few are surprised when Jose Mourinho is involved on the touchline; the European football authorities are still investigating the incident that caused a 10-minute stoppage, adding another layer of tension ahead of the return fixture in Madrid.
From a footballing perspective, it was a tight contest. Real Madrid enjoyed more possession, yet Benfica arguably created the clearer chances. A two-goal margin would have given the Spanish side greater comfort, but 1–0 keeps the Portuguese club firmly in the tie.
History nevertheless favours the hosts. Real Madrid have progressed from 22 of their last 23 European knockout ties after winning the first leg, and they have also won five of their last six meetings with Portuguese opposition.
Benfica, however, have pedigree against Madrid. They have three wins in the head-to-head record, including the famous 5–3 victory in the 1962 European Cup final. More recent statistics highlight the scale of their challenge though: six defeats in their last eight matches against Spanish sides and only two wins from 14 European away games in Spain.
Real Madrid come into this match after a 2–1 La Liga defeat to Osasuna, a result that cost them top spot domestically. Overall form remains strong nonetheless, with four wins from their previous five matches before that setback.
Benfica responded to the first-leg defeat with a convincing 3–0 league win over AFS, and they have progressed from eight of their last eleven European two-legged ties.
The likely scenario points toward Madrid controlling possession and tempo, while Benfica must carefully balance attacking ambition with defensive structure.
Team News
Vinicius Junior is expected to start and is chasing a goal in his fifth consecutive match. Rodrygo is suspended, while Jude Bellingham, Eder Militao and Dani Ceballos remain sidelined through injury. Dean Huijsen is a doubt. Kylian Mbappe is struggling with a knee issue and could miss out, potentially opening the door for Gonzalo Garcia alongside Vinicius in attack.
For Benfica, Gianluca Prestianni is suspended while the European football body’s investigation continues. Joao Veloso is the only confirmed injury absentee. Vangelis Pavlidis, who has scored 28 goals in all competitions this season, is expected to lead the attack, supported by Rafa Silva and possibly Dodi Lukebakio in wide areas.
Odds and Tips
Real Madrid have both history and home advantage on their side, but Benfica have shown they can create problems. With only a single goal separating the teams, this could be more evenly balanced than many anticipate.
A draw looks a realistic outcome, which would still be enough for the hosts to progress.
Tip: Draw at 4.25 – Real Madrid to advance at 1.10.
Please note that the odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last updated: 25.02.26
