PL 2026/27 Preview Part 4: Relegation
For six PL clubs, success in 2026/27 can be defined very simply: make sure they are still here next season. In Part 4, the last one, of our PL 26/27 preview, we take a look at the teams we believe could end up getting relegated at the end of the campaign.
Nottingham Forest, Leeds United and Sunderland survived last time around but enter the new campaign with enough question marks to make another difficult season possible.
Then come the newcomers. Coventry City return to the PL after 25 years away, Ipswich Town have bounced straight back following one season in the Championship, while Hull City completed the promoted trio with a dramatic playoff victory at Wembley.
Recent history demonstrates just how difficult the transition can be for promoted teams, but survival is far from impossible. The challenge for Coventry, Ipswich and Hull is identifying which established PL clubs they can drag below them. That is where Forest, Leeds and Sunderland enter the equation.
Read Part 1 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read Part 2 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read Part 3 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/27 season here.
Read part 1 of our preview of the Italian 26/27 season here, with part 2 also out.
Nottingham Forest – Can Glasner unlock more from this squad?
Last season: 16th
Manager: Oliver Glasner
Nottingham Forest enter the season believing they should be looking upwards rather than over their shoulders.
Oliver Glasner certainly does. The former Crystal Palace manager has taken charge at the City Ground after Forest finished 16th last season, and he has already made clear that he believes the squad contains considerably more potential than it showed in 2025/26.
There is evidence to support him. Morgan Gibbs-White remains the creative heartbeat of the side, while Omari Hutchinson and James McAtee give Forest additional quality between midfield and attack. Igor Jesus provides a focal point through the middle, and Nikola Milenkovic remains an important presence in defence.
Glasner has immediately started implementing the three-man defensive system that became such a feature of his successful spell at Palace.
His first pre-season starting XI featured Milenkovic, Jair Cunha and Morato as the back three, with Ola Aina and Neco Williams operating as wing-backs. Gibbs-White, Hutchinson and McAtee were then given freedom behind Igor Jesus. On paper, that looks considerably better than a typical relegation candidate. The problem is depth and balance.
Forest are still attempting to strengthen the defence before the transfer window closes, with Ousmane Diomanda having already arrived from Sporting CP. Glasner’s system depends heavily on athletic centre-backs capable of defending large spaces, stepping into midfield and allowing the wing-backs to attack. Forest have options, but another defender specifically suited to the new manager would make the transition considerably easier.
There is also pressure on the attacking players to produce more consistently. Forest cannot rely entirely on Gibbs-White to create opportunities, while Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo need to provide sufficient goals to keep the club away from trouble.
The appointment of Glasner is nevertheless a major reason for optimism. He has already demonstrated in the PL that he can take over a struggling side and rapidly establish an identity. His Palace teams were aggressive, direct when necessary and extremely dangerous in transition. Forest possess players who should suit that football.
ArcticBet verdict: Forest belong in the relegation discussion because of last season’s 16th-place finish, but they have the potential to escape it quickly. Glasner is an excellent appointment and the squad contains considerably more attacking talent than several teams in this group. If Forest complete the defensive reinforcements their manager wants, they should survive.
Leeds United – Second-season syndrome is the danger
Last season: 17th
Manager: Daniel Farke
Leeds achieved their primary objective last season. They stayed up. After returning to the PL in 2025, Daniel Farke guided his side to 17th place and another season among England’s elite. Nothing about it was comfortable, but survival gave Leeds something promoted clubs desperately need: another summer to build a PL squad. The difficulty is doing it again.
There is a long history of promoted clubs surviving their first campaign before discovering that the second can be even harder. Opponents know more about them, expectations rise and simply matching the previous season’s performance may not be enough.
Leeds have therefore continued strengthening. Harry Wilson is one of the most interesting additions. The Wales international has joined after leaving Fulham and brings proven PL creativity. Wilson contributed 10 goals and seven assists last season, numbers that would represent a significant addition to a Leeds attack that needs more production.
Goalkeeper James Trafford has also arrived from Manchester City. That is another important signing. Trafford brings PL experience and gives Farke a goalkeeper capable of developing with the club over several seasons. There has also been movement in the opposite direction.
Pascal Struijk has joined Brighton, removing an important central defender, while Jack Harrison has completed a move to New England Revolution. Leeds therefore still have areas to address before the transfer window closes.
Pre-season has been deliberately demanding. Farke took his squad to the United States for matches against Wrexham, Sunderland and Manchester City, giving Leeds an opportunity to test themselves against different styles while also building fitness after a summer of international football.
The opening game produced a 3-2 defeat to Wrexham despite Sean Longstaff finding the net. Results matter less than preparation at this stage, but Leeds cannot afford to begin the competitive campaign slowly.
Their opening fixture is particularly significant: Nottingham Forest away. It is unusual to describe the first weekend as a relegation six-pointer, but both clubs will recognise the value of beginning with three points against a potential direct rival.
Farke has already shown he can keep this team in the PL. Now he needs to demonstrate that Leeds can become something more than permanent survival candidates.
ArcticBet verdict: Leeds have improved in some important areas, particularly with Wilson adding creativity, but losing Struijk weakens the defence. They survived narrowly last season and another difficult campaign looks likely. There should be enough quality to stay up again, but Leeds cannot afford complacency.
Sunderland – Building on an impressive return
Last season: 14th
Manager: Regis Le Bris
Of the three established PL teams in this group, Sunderland have the strongest argument for not being here at all. Their return to the top flight was a success.
Regis Le Bris guided Sunderland to 14th place, comfortably achieving the objective of survival and giving a young squad invaluable PL experience. The next challenge is avoiding regression.
Sunderland’s recruitment strategy remains centred around young players with development potential, but the club have also recognised the need for experience. Thomas Meunier is a perfect example.
The Belgian international has arrived with enormous experience from Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and the Belgium national team. His performances during pre-season have already been encouraging, and his presence should help a squad still containing a large number of young players.
That combination of youth and experience is increasingly important. Habib Diarra, Noah Sadiki and Chemsdine Talbi all now have a full PL campaign behind them. Chris Rigg is another year older and physically stronger, and remains one of the most exciting young English midfielders outside the traditional elite.
Le Bris is also evolving the team’s football. Pre-season has seen Sunderland work on pressing higher up the pitch and creating more attacking threat rather than simply concentrating on remaining compact and difficult to beat.
The preparation has been extensive. Sunderland began closer to home before travelling to the United States, where their programme included matches again Leeds and Rennes, which both ended in wins.
There is plenty to like. The concern is that Sunderland cannot assume last season’s survival automatically means they have established themselves.
Second seasons can expose weaknesses that were less obvious during the momentum of a promotion campaign, and the PL’s financial power means rivals are constantly improving. Goals will again be crucial.
Sunderland need enough attacking output to ensure that promising performances translate into points, particularly against the teams expected to finish around them. But unlike the promoted trio, they know exactly what is required at this level. That experience matters.
ArcticBet verdict: Sunderland look the safest of our six relegation candidates. Le Bris has built a clear identity, the young core now has PL experience and Meunier adds valuable leadership. Another season in the lower half is likely, but Sunderland should have enough to remain comfortably above the bottom three.
Coventry City – The champions return after 25 years
Last season: 1st in the Championship
Manager: Frank Lampard
Coventry City are finally back. Twenty-five years after dropping out of the PL, the Sky Blues return as Championship champions and with considerably more ambition than simply enjoying the occasion. Frank Lampard deserves enormous credit.
Coventry’s rise under the former Chelsea and Everton manager culminated in the Championship title last season, and the club have responded to promotion by backing him in the transfer market.
Frank Onyeka has joined from Brentford to add PL experience in central midfield. Loum Tchaouna represents a more ambitious attacking investment. Coventry have paid around £20m to bring the winger from Burnley, while centre-back Aurele Amenda has arrived from Eintracht Frankfurt.
Then came a particularly popular return. Gustavo Hamer is back at Coventry after rejoining from Sheffield United in a deal worth around £6m plus add-ons.
Hamer already understands the club, the supporters and English football. More importantly, he gives Coventry creativity and personality in midfield at a time when promoted teams desperately need players willing to take responsibility. The spine of the promotion team remains important.
Captain Matt Grimes provides composure in midfield, Bobby Thomas is established at centre-back and Ellis Simms gives Coventry a physical presence through the middle.
The challenge is obvious. The jump from Championship football to the PL is enormous, and Coventry’s first match could hardly underline that more clearly. They travel to defending champions Arsenal on the opening night of the season. It is a brutal introduction.
But Coventry have not approached the summer like a club resigned to going straight back down. Onyeka, Tchaouna, Amenda and Hamer address different areas of the team and give Lampard a more competitive squad. There may still be further business before the window closes.
Another PL quality attacker would increase their chances, while depth across the defence will be tested over 38 matches. Momentum should not be underestimated either.
Coventry won the Championship rather than scraping through the playoffs. They arrive accustomed to winning matches and with a manager whose reputation has been rebuilt considerably by his work at the club.
ArcticBet verdict: Coventry are our strongest promoted team. Winning the Championship provides a better foundation than arriving through the playoffs, and the recruitment has been sensible. They will have difficult periods, but Lampard has been backed and Hamer’s return could prove particularly important. Survival is achievable.
Ipswich Town – Back again, but without McKenna
Last season: 2nd in the Championship
Manager: Gary O’Neil
Ipswich needed only one season to return to the PL. Their reward is another attempt at establishing themselves in the top flight, but this time without the manager who led their extraordinary rise through English football.
Kieran McKenna stepped down following promotion. Gary O’Neil has replaced him on a three-year contract after leaving Strasbourg, where he guided the French club to eighth place in Ligue 1 and the ECL semi-finals.
For a newly promoted club, O’Neil’s previous PL experience is particularly valuable. He kept Bournemouth up after taking charge in difficult circumstances and subsequently guided Wolves to 14th. Ipswich do not need him to reinvent the club. They need him to find enough points to keep them above three other teams.
He has been given substantial help in the transfer market. Abdul Fatawu has arrived from Leicester for around £20m and gives Ipswich pace and unpredictability from the right.
Daizen Maeda is another particularly interesting signing. The Japan international has joined from Celtic and brings speed, pressing intensity and the ability to operate either centrally or from wide positions.
Chuba Akpom and Emersonn provide additional centre-forward options. Ipswich have also invested heavily in making the defence PL ready.
Issa Diop has arrived from Fulham with extensive top-flight experience, while Cedric Kipre adds another physical central-defensive option. Goalkeeper Kayne van Oevelen has also joined from Volendam. There is a clear logic to the recruitment.
Ipswich have added PL experience, attacking pace and defensive size rather than simply keeping faith with the squad that won promotion. That should give O’Neil options.
His previous PL teams have generally been pragmatic when necessary, and that may suit Ipswich. Promoted clubs cannot always impose themselves on stronger opponents; sometimes survival requires accepting long periods without the ball and finding ways to win ugly.
The opening fixture provides an immediate opportunity. Ipswich host Sunderland at Portman Road.
Unlike Coventry’s trip to Arsenal, this is the type of game Ipswich will realistically target for points. A strong home record could ultimately determine their fate.
ArcticBet verdict: Ipswich look better prepared than they did during their previous PL campaign. O’Neil knows how to manage a survival battle, while Fatawu, Maeda and Diop are intelligent additions. Losing McKenna is significant, but Ipswich have given his replacement a squad capable of staying up.
Hull City – Can the playoff outsiders defy the numbers again?
Last season: 6th in the Championship
Manager: Sergej Jakirovic
Hull City were not supposed to be here. Even during their promotion campaign, the underlying numbers suggested a team performing significantly above expectations.
Hull finished sixth in the Championship before reaching the playoff final, where Oli McBurnie’s stoppage-time goal against Middlesbrough sent them back to the PL for the first time since 2017.
The achievement was remarkable. Sergej Jakirovic had taken over a club that narrowly avoided relegation the previous season and transformed them into a promoted side.
But the circumstances of that promotion also explain why Hull begin among the favourites for relegation.
Their Championship results significantly outperformed their underlying performances. That can happen across one season. Repeating it against PL opposition is considerably harder. Hull know they need reinforcements.
Sweden international Elliot Stroud has arrived following an impressive international tournament and gives Jakirovic another option at wing-back.
The goalkeeper position has also undergone change. Ivor Pandur has moved to Rangers, with Jack Butland heading in the opposite direction. Hull falso signed Olympiacos goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis.
The most important player may still be McBurnie. He scored 17 times during the regular Championship campaign before producing the goal that took Hull up at Wembley.
His physicality should translate to the PL, but expecting him to carry the entire goalscoring burden would be dangerous. Hull need goals from elsewhere.
They also need the defensive structure that served them during the promotion run to survive a dramatic increase in attacking quality. Pre-season has at least started encouragingly.
Hull produced a comfortable victory over Konyaspor in their opening match, allowing Jakirovic to begin integrating his new players while maintaining the confidence created by promotion.
Their PL return begins at home against Manchester United. The MKM Stadium should provide Hull with one of their biggest advantages this season. Newly promoted clubs often depend heavily on home form, and the atmosphere generated by a first PL campaign in nine years could make Hull uncomfortable opponents.
But sentiment cannot disguise the challenge. Of the three promoted sides, Hull had the weakest Championship season. They came through the playoffs rather than the automatic places and substantially exceeded their expected-points numbers. That makes them the most vulnerable newcomer.
ArcticBet verdict: Hull have already exceeded expectations simply by reaching the PL. Jakirovic deserves enormous credit, but survival requires another achievement of similar magnitude. More PL quality additions are needed before the window closes, particularly in attack. They begin as our favourites for relegation.
Who will survive the PL relegation battle?
There is a significant divide within this group. Sunderland finished 14th last season and have a settled manager, a developing young squad and a year of PL experience behind them. We expect them to move away from serious danger.
Forest also have reasons for optimism. Glasner is a proven PL coach and inherits players capable of producing far more than a 16th-place finish. If Forest strengthen the defence as expected, they should climb.
That leaves Leeds and the three promoted clubs fighting over increasingly limited space. Leeds have already survived once under Farke, and the addition of Wilson should give them more creativity. They are far from safe, but experience gives them an advantage.
Coventry are the promoted side we like most. Lampard’s team arrive as Championship champions, have retained the core of the promotion squad and added Onyeka, Tchaouna, Amenda and Hamer. They have recruited with survival in mind.
Ipswich have arguably made the largest number of interesting additions. O’Neil also has something enormously valuable for a newly promoted team: direct experience of keeping clubs in the PL.
Hull face the hardest task. They finished sixth in the Championship and needed the playoffs to go up, while their underlying numbers suggest their promotion campaign involved a considerable amount of overperformance. Three teams have to go down.
ArcticBet prediction
15. Sunderland
16. Nottingham Forest
17. Coventry City
18. Leeds United
19. Ipswich Town
20. Hull City
We expect Sunderland and Forest to establish a reasonable distance between themselves and the relegation places as the season develops.
The real fight could therefore involve Leeds and the three promoted clubs. Coventry are our choice to survive. Their Championship title, continuity under Lampard and summer recruitment give them the strongest combination of momentum and improvement among the newcomers.
That leaves Leeds, Ipswich and Hull as our predicted bottom three. There is very little separating Leeds and Ipswich, and O’Neil’s PL experience could easily make this prediction look wrong. Hull, however, appear to face the biggest challenge of all.
The relegation battle could again go deep into May, but survival would represent an enormous achievement for any of the three promoted clubs.
Don’t forget that we also have Early Payout on this league, which you can read more about here.
Please note that the odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last Updated: 21.08.2026
